Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 11.719480 13.151295 14.791972 16.835340 19.347318 22.383379 26.409533
2024-10-27 9.606729 11.253272 13.276342 16.009329 19.713917 24.741447 32.442779
2024-11-03 9.419823 11.474022 14.167933 18.110748 24.033172 33.202878 50.059902
2024-11-10 8.910085 11.152819 14.233782 19.020882 26.819657 40.333303 69.915384
2024-11-17 8.009601 10.173141 13.221325 18.118910 26.484880 42.025511 80.319628
2024-11-24 7.479777 9.645592 12.779067 17.998391 27.395045 46.319456 100.476076
2024-12-01 7.003536 9.143203 12.306778 17.737247 27.966662 50.127810 123.684606
2024-12-08 6.647540 8.782025 12.005327 17.706060 28.952288 55.293673 159.493377
2024-12-15 6.391408 8.545708 11.869925 17.934945 30.507921 62.669901 221.911856
2024-12-22 6.024017 8.110887 11.371981 17.432892 30.382580 65.420415 269.277759
2024-12-29 5.784726 7.857218 11.147900 17.410280 31.329329 71.981002 375.594002
2025-01-05 5.458684 7.446861 10.629035 16.758113 30.661871 72.967101 440.747630
2025-01-12 5.095317 6.973758 9.998269 15.876384 29.418831 71.954420 492.440517
2025-01-19 4.783475 6.568155 9.458844 15.127913 28.395249 71.457790 563.391131
2025-01-26 4.917611 6.885529 10.190745 17.048021 34.805029 107.301458 4646.242551
2025-02-02 4.870623 6.900377 10.385646 17.876348 38.614766 139.129511 NaN
2025-02-09 4.609295 6.540955 9.868177 17.055474 37.150054 137.187099 NaN
2025-02-16 4.458536 6.361301 9.672513 16.945640 37.958036 152.742754 NaN
2025-02-23 4.303049 6.165672 9.433433 16.707525 38.291146 165.980495 NaN
2025-03-02 4.183575 6.025896 9.290491 16.679076 39.356143 188.658697 NaN
2025-03-09 4.099114 5.942174 9.248508 16.887804 41.367528 228.171760 NaN
2025-03-16 3.946301 5.732268 8.948735 16.429793 40.742149 236.021562 NaN
2025-03-23 3.849872 5.617445 8.828624 16.409149 41.845719 272.875001 NaN